EUR/USD EURUSD — Euro / US Dollar
— Live
4H Market Hub Primary count Bearish

EUR/USD 4H Elliott Wave Analysis

EURUSD, H4: Next Target Intermediate Wave C

By Tony Lyle · Updated 22 Sep 2026, 11:08am UK · First published 16 Sep 2026
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Expecting EURUSD to start consolidating, corrective and choppy rather than directional, staying below the base channel support trendline as it caps price from above, reinforced by the 0.236 to 0.5 retracement band at 1.14692 to 1.15006. From there, a final push lower should complete intermediate wave (A) of Primary ((W)).

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Bias

Bearish

Current wave

Wave 3 Minor degree

Condition

Corrective Forming

Confidence

Medium Count active

Invalidation

1.15234 Count is wrong beyond

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Elliott Wave analysis?

Elliott Wave analysis is a technical analysis method that identifies repeating price patterns, or "waves," shaped by shifts in investor psychology. It's used to forecast probable future price direction based on the market's current wave structure.

Is Elliott Wave analysis a guarantee of future price movement?

No. Elliott Wave analysis identifies the most probable wave count and price scenario based on current market structure, but markets can and do invalidate a count. It should be used alongside proper risk management, not as a standalone guarantee.

What's the difference between an impulse wave and a corrective wave?

An impulse wave is a five-wave structure that moves in the direction of the larger trend, while a corrective wave is a counter-trend structure (commonly three waves) that retraces part of the prior move.

What is the current Elliott Wave count for EUR/USD?

As of this analysis, EUR/USD is trading in Wave 3, of Minor degree, on the 4h timeframe.

Is EUR/USD bullish or bearish right now?

Based on the current Elliott Wave structure, our analysis shows a Bearish bias for EUR/USD.

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This analysis is for information and education only and is not financial advice. Trading leveraged products such as forex, futures and CFDs carries a high risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not a guide to future results.

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