USD/JPY Daily Elliott Wave Analysis
USDJPY Daily Minor wave 4 is unfolding as a running flat from the January 2026 high. Wave ((a)) declined to 152 in February, wave ((b)) advanced to 164.4 in August, exceeding the start of wave ((a)), and wave ((c)) is now in progress. Within wave ((c)), waves (i) through (iii) are complete, with (iii) terminating in the 153.9 to 155.9 zone, and wave (iv) is now retracing with price at 159.060. Wave (iv) should terminate between 158.571 and 160.633, the 0.382 to 0.618 retracement. Wave (v) then completes wave ((c)) and Minor wave 4 at 153 to 154. That terminus is the key detail. Wave ((c)) finishing above the wave ((a)) low at 152 is what makes this a running flat rather than a regular or expanded one, and running flats are among the more strongly bullish corrective structures. The final leg falling short indicates the underlying trend is strong enough to prevent a full retracement. Once wave 4 completes, Minor wave 5 resumes the advance toward the weekly objective at 170. A move above 164.4 invalidates the flat.
Bias
Turning BullishCurrent wave
Wave 4 Minor degreeCondition
Corrective Near CompleteConfidence
High Count activeInvalidation
152.109 Count is wrong beyondElliott Wave analysis is a technical analysis method that identifies repeating price patterns, or "waves," shaped by shifts in investor psychology. It's used to forecast probable future price direction based on the market's current wave structure.
No. Elliott Wave analysis identifies the most probable wave count and price scenario based on current market structure, but markets can and do invalidate a count. It should be used alongside proper risk management, not as a standalone guarantee.
An impulse wave is a five-wave structure that moves in the direction of the larger trend, while a corrective wave is a counter-trend structure (commonly three waves) that retraces part of the prior move.
As of this analysis, USD/JPY is trading in Wave 4, of Minor degree, on the daily timeframe.
Based on the current Elliott Wave structure, our analysis shows a Turning Bullish bias for USD/JPY.
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Sign In to CommentThis analysis is for information and education only and is not financial advice. Trading leveraged products such as forex, futures and CFDs carries a high risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not a guide to future results.
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