EURUSD Elliott Wave Analysis: Wave 4 Bounce Before Further Downside

Introduction

EURUSD Elliott Wave Forecast: EURUSD remains within an important larger Elliott Wave structure, with the monthly chart suggesting that a triangle may be developing.

Waves A, B and C appear complete, leaving the possibility that wave D is now unfolding as a double three. Within that larger structure, the first leg, wave W, could be approaching completion.

This creates the potential for a corrective recovery before the next larger leg unfolds.

In the analysis below, I break down the monthly, weekly and daily charts to explain the current Elliott Wave count, the potential wave 4 bounce and the key levels I am watching.

Monthly EURUSD Elliott Wave Structure

The monthly chart provides the larger framework for the current EURUSD count.

I am interpreting the structure as a triangle, with waves A, B and C appearing complete. Based on this interpretation, wave D may now be developing, with a double-three structure the preferred scenario.

If wave D is unfolding as a double three, its first component, wave W, could be nearing completion.

That would suggest the possibility of a corrective recovery before the next leg of wave D develops.

For now, the focus is on identifying whether the current decline can complete the wave W structure and provide the foundation for a larger corrective move.

Weekly Chart: Wave W Structure

Moving down to the weekly chart gives us a clearer look at the internal structure of wave W.

Wave W appears to be developing as a double-three correction. Within this structure, wave A formed as an impulse, while wave B appears to have completed as a running flat.

The current expectation is for wave C to continue lower.

Within wave C, waves 1 and 2 appear complete, while wave 3 has already reached the 2.618 Fibonacci extension.

From here, I am watching for a wave 4 recovery.

Because wave 2 was a relatively sharp correction, the principle of alternation suggests that wave 4 could develop as a more sideways or complex structure. One possibility is a triangle developing within wave 4.

Wave C Target

The main downside target for wave C is around:

1.1094

This area is significant because of the confluence between the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and the equal-leg projection of wave A from wave B.

When multiple Fibonacci measurements converge around the same area, it can provide a useful zone to monitor for a potential wave completion.

Once wave W is complete, the larger wave X could then retrace part or all of the wave W decline.

The 0.5–0.764 retracement zone of wave W would therefore become an important area to monitor for a potential wave X recovery.

Daily Chart: Potential Wave 4 Bounce

The daily chart allows us to examine the potential wave 4 recovery in greater detail.

Since wave 2 developed as a relatively simple sharp correction, alternation suggests that wave 4 may be more complex and sideways in character.

For this reason, I am watching the:

1.1321–1.1384

area as a potential wave 4 recovery zone.

This corresponds approximately with the 0.236–0.382 Fibonacci retracement area.

A triangle could potentially develop within wave 4 around this region, although the exact structure will need to be confirmed as price action unfolds.

The important point is that a recovery into this area would not necessarily signal the end of the larger bearish structure. Instead, it could represent an intermediate correction within wave C.

Once wave 4 is complete, the larger wave C decline remains expected to continue lower.

Key EURUSD Levels

Potential Wave 4 Recovery:
1.1321–1.1384

Primary Wave C Target:
1.1094

Potential Wave X Retracement:
0.5–0.764 of the Wave W decline

The 1.1094 area is particularly important because of the Fibonacci confluence discussed above.

EURUSD Elliott Wave Forecast: What Happens Next?

The current Elliott Wave interpretation suggests that EURUSD may be approaching an important turning point within the larger structure.

The immediate focus is on whether the decline can complete the current wave W structure and allow wave 4 to develop higher.

The 1.1321–1.1384 area is therefore the key near-term zone I am watching.

If wave 4 develops as expected, potentially as a triangle or another sideways corrective structure, the larger wave C decline toward 1.1094 would remain the main scenario.

Following completion of wave W, attention would then shift toward the potential wave X recovery, where the 0.5–0.764 retracement zone could become significant.

As with all Elliott Wave analysis, the count remains subject to revision as new price action develops.

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This GOLD (XAUUSD) analysis – Elliott Wave update looks at the developing corrective structure in wave b within the broader market context, using the 4‑hour chart to map the triangle and key support zones.

Current intraday structure

On the 4‑hour chart, GOLD (XAUUSD) shows wave ((C)) of b potentially taking the form of an expanding triangle in the orange degree, with price stretching slightly beyond prior swing extremes while still respecting the overall converging channel and Fibonacci projections. Within this Elliott Wave interpretation, wave ((C)) looks close to completion, with the latest push higher likely finishing the final sub‑wave of the pattern.

As an alternate GOLD (XAUUSD) analysis – Elliott Wave view, wave b can be counted as a W–X–Y double three in red, with the latest upswing forming the terminal leg of wave Y. This alternate remains valid while price holds below the upper resistance band and the internal subdivisions retain a corrective character rather than a clean 5‑wave impulse.​

Key levels and next area of interest

Under the preferred triangle scenario for GOLD (XAUUSD), the next downside objective is the 0.382–0.764 retracement zone of wave ((C)), highlighted as the potential wave ((D)) demand area on the chart. This box aligns with prior structure support and the lower boundary of the developing sliding correction, making it the primary “buy‑the‑dip” region if price can correct into it in a controlled three‑wave decline.

Invalidation for this GOLD (XAUUSD) analysis – Elliott Wave roadmap sits beneath the lower edge of the wave ((D)) zone; a decisive break there would suggest wave b has already topped in a more complex fashion, shifting focus back to deeper corrective possibilities before the higher‑degree advance resumes.

This DXY Elliott Wave analysis examines a 4H wave (2) zigzag correction within a larger bullish wave (1) impulse, highlighting the support cluster around prior wave‑1 lows and the 0.618 retracement.

Wave structure and context

On the 4H chart, this DXY Elliott Wave analysis labels the advance into the recent high as wave (1) and the current decline as wave (2) in a zigzag within a well‑defined corrective channel.

• Higher timeframe count labels the advance into the recent high as wave (1) impulse, with the current decline mapped as wave (2) correction unfolding as a clear A‑B‑C zigzag within a well‑defined red corrective channel.​
• Wave C is probing into the green support box between the 0.618 retrace near 97.918 and prior wave‑1 support around 97.808, aligning price, structure and fib symmetry for a potential completion of wave (2).

Key levels and trade plan

• Support is anchored at 97.808 (wave‑1 low), with resistance at 98.764 (wave A) and upside fib targets projected toward the 0.5–0.618 extension window at 122.102–132.161 for the prospective wave (3) advance.
• The trading plan favours a long bias from 98.415, with protective risk just below 97.698 under wave‑1 support and an initial take‑profit focus at 121.258, assuming the corrective channel eventually breaks to the upside.

Confluence and validation

• Confluence comes from the 0.618 fib tap at 97.918, price still respecting the corrective channel boundaries, and 4H RSI divergence, all consistent with a maturing corrective low rather than fresh impulsive selling.
• This DXY Elliott Wave analysis roadmap ties in with your broader cross‑market view in the existing DXY, gold and GBPJPY analysis, with the invalidation zone below 97.698 acting as the line in the sand that would negate the immediate long scenario and force a reassessment of the wave count.