At a Glance

This GBPUSD Elliott Wave analysis tracks the Primary degree triangle on the weekly chart, where wave ((D)) is now complete and price is developing the final leg, wave ((E)), lower before the triangle resolves.

Bias: Bullish (multi-month), pending completion of wave ((E)) Last updated: 8 September 2026

GBPUSD weekly, Elliott Wave Insight. Wave ((D)) complete, wave ((E)) developing inside the triangle.

Why GBPUSD Is a Different Kind of Chart

GBPUSD has been building the same Grand Supercycle degree triangle since 1971, and the current leg, Cycle wave IV, has been forming since June 2025. That’s a long enough timeline that a single snapshot goes stale fast, so this page is kept current as the structure develops rather than written once.

Current GBPUSD Elliott Wave Count

• Grand Supercycle: ((a))-((b))-((c))-((d))-((e)) triangle from 1971
• Supercycle: (a)-(b)-(c) of Grand Supercycle wave ((d)), currently unfolding wave (a)
• Cycle: I-II-III-IV-V from 2022, currently in wave IV, part of Supercycle wave (a)
• Primary: ((A))-((B))-((C))-((D))-((E)) triangle forming Cycle wave IV, started 30 June 2025, with wave ((D)) now complete
• Intermediate/Minor: wave ((E)) developing as a corrective leg lower on the weekly chart

Cycle wave III completed its advance, and the market has spent the time since building out a Primary degree triangle for Cycle wave IV, underway since late June 2025. Triangles unfold in five overlapping legs labelled ((A)) through ((E)), and four of those five legs are now in place. Wave ((E)) is the last piece: a corrective dip that keeps the price action inside the triangle’s boundary lines before the structure resolves. Once Cycle wave IV completes, the next leg higher, Cycle wave V, is expected to complete the larger Supercycle wave (a) within the multi-decade Grand Supercycle triangle, so this triangle is a pause within a much longer-running structure rather than a standalone pattern.

A reliable GBPUSD Elliott Wave count like this one also has to satisfy the standard Fibonacci retracement relationships between its legs, alongside the guideline of alternation, which says wave ((B)) and wave ((D)) in a triangle should look different in shape and depth from each other. Both hold up here: wave ((D)) retraced a smaller portion of wave ((C)) than wave ((B)) did of wave ((A)), which is typical of a contracting triangle and adds confidence to labelling the current dip as wave ((E)) rather than the start of something larger.

Key Levels

What This GBPUSD Elliott Wave Count Means for Traders

While wave ((E)) is still developing, expect choppy, overlapping price action inside the 1.3137 to 1.3659 range rather than a clean directional move; that overlap is itself a signature of triangle waves. The bigger picture stays bullish: once wave ((E)) completes, the triangle points to a Cycle wave V advance, with the triangle’s width used to project the size of that move. A weekly close back above 1.3659 would be the first sign that wave ((E)) has already found its low.

This is analysis, not personalised financial advice. Trading carries risk of loss and this page should be read alongside your own risk management.

Learn the Method Behind This Count

If terms like “triangle,” “degree,” and “wave ((E))” are new to you, our Elliott Academy breaks down the rules from first principles: start with What Are Elliott Wave Degrees? or go straight to how triangle patterns behave in their final leg. For the underlying theory itself, Investopedia’s overview of Elliott Wave Theory is a solid general reference.

Get the Full Picture

This page reflects the public summary of our GBPUSD Elliott Wave analysis. EWI members get the complete Primary and Intermediate degree breakdown, live price alerts on the key levels above, and daily updates across 30 tracked markets. See Premium →

After reviewing the latest data, it looks like we might fall short of the bearish target in the previous update. However, we’re still expecting the price to reach the mid-channel point, aligning with the 0.764 retracement level, to complete Wave B at 69.449.

From there, Wave Y is estimated to finish around the 0.236 level at 83.274. Expecting one more pushdown to complete the internal Wave B.

This GOLD (XAUUSD) analysis – Elliott Wave update looks at the developing corrective structure in wave b within the broader market context, using the 4‑hour chart to map the triangle and key support zones.

Current intraday structure

On the 4‑hour chart, GOLD (XAUUSD) shows wave ((C)) of b potentially taking the form of an expanding triangle in the orange degree, with price stretching slightly beyond prior swing extremes while still respecting the overall converging channel and Fibonacci projections. Within this Elliott Wave interpretation, wave ((C)) looks close to completion, with the latest push higher likely finishing the final sub‑wave of the pattern.

As an alternate GOLD (XAUUSD) analysis – Elliott Wave view, wave b can be counted as a W–X–Y double three in red, with the latest upswing forming the terminal leg of wave Y. This alternate remains valid while price holds below the upper resistance band and the internal subdivisions retain a corrective character rather than a clean 5‑wave impulse.​

Key levels and next area of interest

Under the preferred triangle scenario for GOLD (XAUUSD), the next downside objective is the 0.382–0.764 retracement zone of wave ((C)), highlighted as the potential wave ((D)) demand area on the chart. This box aligns with prior structure support and the lower boundary of the developing sliding correction, making it the primary “buy‑the‑dip” region if price can correct into it in a controlled three‑wave decline.

Invalidation for this GOLD (XAUUSD) analysis – Elliott Wave roadmap sits beneath the lower edge of the wave ((D)) zone; a decisive break there would suggest wave b has already topped in a more complex fashion, shifting focus back to deeper corrective possibilities before the higher‑degree advance resumes.

This DXY Elliott Wave analysis examines a 4H wave (2) zigzag correction within a larger bullish wave (1) impulse, highlighting the support cluster around prior wave‑1 lows and the 0.618 retracement.

Wave structure and context

On the 4H chart, this DXY Elliott Wave analysis labels the advance into the recent high as wave (1) and the current decline as wave (2) in a zigzag within a well‑defined corrective channel.

• Higher timeframe count labels the advance into the recent high as wave (1) impulse, with the current decline mapped as wave (2) correction unfolding as a clear A‑B‑C zigzag within a well‑defined red corrective channel.​
• Wave C is probing into the green support box between the 0.618 retrace near 97.918 and prior wave‑1 support around 97.808, aligning price, structure and fib symmetry for a potential completion of wave (2).

Key levels and trade plan

• Support is anchored at 97.808 (wave‑1 low), with resistance at 98.764 (wave A) and upside fib targets projected toward the 0.5–0.618 extension window at 122.102–132.161 for the prospective wave (3) advance.
• The trading plan favours a long bias from 98.415, with protective risk just below 97.698 under wave‑1 support and an initial take‑profit focus at 121.258, assuming the corrective channel eventually breaks to the upside.

Confluence and validation

• Confluence comes from the 0.618 fib tap at 97.918, price still respecting the corrective channel boundaries, and 4H RSI divergence, all consistent with a maturing corrective low rather than fresh impulsive selling.
• This DXY Elliott Wave analysis roadmap ties in with your broader cross‑market view in the existing DXY, gold and GBPJPY analysis, with the invalidation zone below 97.698 acting as the line in the sand that would negate the immediate long scenario and force a reassessment of the wave count.

Gold is at a critical technical juncture with two distinct Elliott Wave scenarios playing out:

Bearish: Wave 2 expanding flat finishing at 3,920.49 → Wave 3 down toward 3,600–3,750

Bullish: Wave 4 triangle (E) completing at 4,163.83 → Wave 5 up toward 4,350+

Bullish Scenario

Bullish Scenario

Gold is displaying a textbook contracting triangle on the 4H timeframe with Wave (E) of the correction approaching completion. The setup is now favoring a BULLISH Wave 5 thrust higher once the triangle fully resolves.

The Structure:

• (A) – Initial downleg
• (B) – Bounce/retracement
• (C) – Lower low into triangle
• (D) – Rally into Fibonacci resistance
• (E) – Final compression leg (currently developing)

Bullish Targets:

• Wave (E) completion target: 4,163.83 (0.382 Fib)
• Wave 5 upside target: 4,350–4,400+ (measured-move extension)
• First resistance: 4,231.63 (prior wave resistance)
• Key support (stop): 4,101.57 (0.618 Fib – triangle invalidation floor)

Confirmation signal: Close above 4,231 on 4H + MACD positive divergence

Bearish Scenario

Gold is showing a critical Elliott Wave structure on the 4H timeframe with the broader picture revealing a massive Wave 2 expanding flat correction that’s entering its final stages. Once this structure completes, expect sharp Wave 3 downside acceleration.

Wave 3 downside target: 3,600–3,500 zone (measured-move from Wave 1)

GBPUSD Elliott Wave Analysis continues to favour a bullish higher‑timeframe roadmap, with price currently working through what looks like a higher‑degree Wave 2 correction after the impulsive advance from the 1.21 area into the 1.37s. The decline from the Wave 1 high into 1.3145 forms the first leg of the correction (w), followed by an overlapping recovery into 1.3725 as x, and price now appears to be developing the final zigzag down in y toward the 1.29–1.28 support region highlighted on the chart.

Key Levels

The primary Wave‑2 downside zone spans from roughly 1.2930, which aligns with the 0.5 retracement of the prior advance, down to around 1.2740, where the 0.618 retracement comes in. The 1.29 handle sits in the middle of this cluster and also coincides with a 1.618 Fibonacci projection of the earlier swing, creating a strong confluence area for a corrective low. As long as GBPUSD holds above the wider 1.2660–1.27 region, the larger impulsive structure from 1.21 remains intact and this correction is still best viewed as Wave 2 rather than the start of a more bearish sequence.​​

Elliott Wave Roadmap

The preferred roadmap is for price to fade lower from the current descending channel resistance (blue trendline) and complete Wave 2 inside the 1.29–1.28 support box before a fresh Wave 3 advance has room to develop. While that zone has not yet been tested, pops within the channel are treated as corrective rallies, not yet the beginning of Wave 3. Once the boxed area is tagged and defended ideally with evidence of impulsive buying and improving momentum the focus shifts to confirming that Wave 3 is underway, with higher‑timeframe targets then projected using standard Fibonacci extensions of Wave 1.

BTCUSD Elliott Wave Analysis continues to point toward a corrective consolidation within a larger secular uptrend rather than a completed bull market.

Big Picture Monthly Structure

On the monthly chart, BTCUSD appears to have completed a clear five‑wave advance into a major high, labeled as cycle wave III, with strong middle‑wave extension and momentum peaks aligning with the prior blow‑off phases. Price is now holding above the primary trend channel and oscillating around the 0.236–0.382 retracement band, a typical depth for a fourth‑wave correction in a strong, ongoing secular trend.​​

Developing Cycle IV Triangle

Within this higher‑degree context, current price action is best described as a developing cycle wave IV triangle. The first leg lower from the cycle III peak into the recent low counts well as wave a, followed by an overlapping, choppy recovery that is advancing toward the 0.5–0.764 retracement region for wave b. This structure aligns with common triangle characteristics: contracting price swings, loss of directional momentum, and internal corrective subwaves rather than impulsive pushes.​

Key Levels and Invalidation

The key resistance zone for wave b sits in the 0.5–0.764 Fibonacci retracement band measured from the cycle III high to the wave a low, where reactions and slower upside progress would be expected if the triangle view is correct. On the downside, the major structural support is defined by the monthly 0.236–0.382 retracements and the lower boundary of the long‑term trend channel; holding above this cluster keeps the cycle IV triangle as the primary roadmap. A decisive sustained break below this band would be the clearest warning that the market is attempting a deeper correction than a typical fourth‑wave triangle.​​

Roadmap After Triangle Completion

If BTCUSD continues to trace out the remaining c–d–e swings inside the pattern, the expectation would be for volatility to compress further into mid‑range before cycle wave IV completes. Once a final e‑wave low forms without breaking the major support cluster, Elliott Wave guidelines anticipate a strong directional move in cycle wave V, with upside potential toward or beyond the upper parallel of the long‑term channel and Fibonacci extension targets measured from prior impulse legs.​

The market leaves clues. Elliott Wave reads them.

EURUSD Elliott Wave Analysis continues to favor a bullish higher timeframe bias while the Wave 4 contracting triangle structure holds above the base channel. Price action has likely completed wave d of the triangle, and the current focus is on wave e developing lower into the key Fibonacci support cluster at the 0.382, 0.5, and 0.618 retracement levels. This zone is where the correction is expected to complete before the next impulsive advance.

Current Structure

On the daily chart, EURUSD is tracing out a classic Wave 4 triangle, with each leg subdividing correctly and volatility compressing as the pattern matures. Wave d has tested upper resistance, and attention now shifts to wave e, which typically terminates near the triangle’s lower boundary and often aligns with Fibonacci supports taken from the prior Wave 3 advance. This confirms the integrity of the EURUSD Elliott Wave Analysis and keeps the broader uptrend intact.

4‑hour view: identifying waves ((c)) and ((d))

On the 4‑hour timeframe, the EURUSD Elliott Wave analysis marks wave ((c)) completing at 1.14697 after a sharp three‑wave decline that tagged both the lower triangle line and roughly the 0.764 retrace of the prior advance.​
From that low, EURUSD advanced in another overlapping three‑wave move and topped at 1.16823 just beneath the descending triangle resistance and close to the 0.5–0.618 retracement zone, a typical termination area for a triangle’s ((d)) leg.

Momentum adds weight to this reading: while price made a marginal new high into 1.16823, 4‑hour RSI failed to register a new high, leaving mild bearish divergence against resistance.​
This loss of upside momentum at a key confluence zone fits better with a maturing triangle wave ((d)) than with the start of a sustained impulsive breakout.

Key Levels & Invalidation

The key downside levels for wave e are the 0.382, 0.5, and 0.618 Fibonacci retracements, forming the primary support zone where the Wave 4 triangle is expected to complete. Invalidation of this scenario occurs only on a sustained break below the triangle floor and the base channel, which would suggest that Wave 4 is morphing into a deeper correction rather than a contained triangle. As long as price respects these structural boundaries, the bullish roadmap remains the preferred view.

Elliott Wave Roadmap

• Wave 4 triangle structure is unfolding as expected
• Wave e is projected into the 0.382–0.618 Fibonacci support cluster
• Count stays valid while price trades above the base channel and triangle support
• A clean impulsive breakout from the triangle would signal Wave 5 in progress
• Wave 5 target is the classic triangle thrust objective around 1.20697

Clear structure = clear decisions.

Gold continues to trade near all‑time highs, but the larger Elliott Wave structure suggests the market may be building a major expanding flat before a deeper correction unfolds. The current advance fits best as a terminal move within a higher‑degree wave (3), with price stretching above the prior peak into the wave b high at 4,381.27 before sellers began to respond.

Higher time frame structure

On the daily chart, the impulsive rally from the base channel has already delivered a strong five‑wave advance, with wave (iii) extended and followed by a broad, overlapping correction. That correction is counted as an expanding flat: wave A down, wave B breaking to a new high at 4,381.27, and a still‑developing wave C decline projected to unfold next. Momentum has already started to diverge against price on this last leg, consistent with a maturing B‑wave blow‑off.

Key levels and Fibonacci projections

Fibonacci projections from the prior swing outline a downside roadmap once this flat completes. The 2.618 extension clusters near 3,250, aligning with prior structure and channel support. A broader demand zone then spans roughly 3,140 down toward 2,920, where a 0.382 retracement of the entire advance meets the rising base channel. A more extreme capitulation scenario would open the door toward the 4.618 extension in the 2,490 region.

Gold Elliott Wave Forecast – Updated Structure

Gold has now confirmed a clean breakout from the contracting triangle, completing the B wave of the ongoing corrective structure. This development reinforces the broader Gold Elliott Wave Analysis outlook, suggesting that price is preparing for a C-wave advance aimed toward the upper Fibonacci resistance zone.

The recent consolidation printed a well-defined triangle, a formation commonly seen in the position of a B wave. The breakout aligns with this behaviour and supports the continuation of the correction.

Technical Breakdown

• Triangle confirmed as Wave B: Recent consolidation pattern resolved cleanly as a B-wave triangle—a classic corrective feature.
• Breakout supports bullish bias: Price action confirms alignment with the larger Elliott Wave scenario.
• Subwave subdivisions: Internal structure remains in harmony with the working wave count.
• Corrective channel intact: Gold continues to respect boundaries of the projected corrective channel.
• Wave (2) development ongoing: Structural evidence supports that Wave (2) is still incomplete.

C-Wave Upside Targets

The expected next phase is a C-wave rally, aiming toward a high-probability Fibonacci confluence zone before the corrective pattern resolves:

This zone offers the most likely completion area for Wave (2) before resumption of the dominant trend.

Outlook & Expectations

• Momentum watch: A sustained breakout suggests the C wave may gather strength toward the Fibonacci target zone.
• Validation level: The bullish scenario holds as long as price remains above the B-wave triangle low.
• Bigger picture: When Wave (2) completes, expect the higher timeframe downtrend to resume according to the master wave count.

Alternate Count