This BTCUSD Elliott Wave analysis uses the monthly chart to map Bitcoin as part of a multi‑year impulsive advance, with Cycle Waves 1 and 2 complete and price now deep into a powerful Cycle Wave 3. The video explores the idea that, once Cycle Wave 3 finishes, BTCUSD may transition into a large Cycle Wave 4 triangle consolidation rather than an immediate collapse or straight‑line melt‑up.​

A contracting triangle outline is shown on the right side of the chart, treating the first sharp decline from the peak as Wave A and the current overlapping recovery as Wave B, with the market expected to rotate through A–B–C–D–E before launching Cycle Wave 5 higher.

Key levels and scenarios

• Preferred scenario: BTCUSD Elliott Wave analysis favours Cycle Wave 4 developing as a broad triangle while price holds the 0.382 retracement of the prior advance and the lower boundary of the long‑term channel. Above that cluster, the triangle remains preferred over a full trend reversal.​
• Bullish outcome: Once Wave E of 4 completes, Elliott Wave guidelines project a strong Cycle Wave 5 thrust, with upside targets from the 1.618 and 2.618 extensions of earlier impulses, pointing to significantly higher prices than today.​
• Risk to the roadmap: A decisive monthly close well below channel support and the 0.382 retracement would argue for a deeper flat or more bearish structure, while a straight impulsive break through the proposed B‑wave highs without sideways compression would imply the advance is still part of an ongoing Cycle Wave 3, not a triangle.​

Gold is at a critical technical juncture with two distinct Elliott Wave scenarios playing out:

Bearish: Wave 2 expanding flat finishing at 3,920.49 → Wave 3 down toward 3,600–3,750

Bullish: Wave 4 triangle (E) completing at 4,163.83 → Wave 5 up toward 4,350+

Bullish Scenario

Bullish Scenario

Gold is displaying a textbook contracting triangle on the 4H timeframe with Wave (E) of the correction approaching completion. The setup is now favoring a BULLISH Wave 5 thrust higher once the triangle fully resolves.

The Structure:

• (A) – Initial downleg
• (B) – Bounce/retracement
• (C) – Lower low into triangle
• (D) – Rally into Fibonacci resistance
• (E) – Final compression leg (currently developing)

Bullish Targets:

• Wave (E) completion target: 4,163.83 (0.382 Fib)
• Wave 5 upside target: 4,350–4,400+ (measured-move extension)
• First resistance: 4,231.63 (prior wave resistance)
• Key support (stop): 4,101.57 (0.618 Fib – triangle invalidation floor)

Confirmation signal: Close above 4,231 on 4H + MACD positive divergence

Bearish Scenario

Gold is showing a critical Elliott Wave structure on the 4H timeframe with the broader picture revealing a massive Wave 2 expanding flat correction that’s entering its final stages. Once this structure completes, expect sharp Wave 3 downside acceleration.

Wave 3 downside target: 3,600–3,500 zone (measured-move from Wave 1)

Current Structure

The triangle has formed with clearly defined upper and lower boundaries, with price currently oscillating within the band. The internal swings show diminishing amplitude, classic for a late-stage triangle where volatility is compressing before the next leg. This aligns with textbook Elliott Wave guidelines for wave (iv) or corrective consolidations that often precede wave (v) or impulsive advances.

Key Levels and Setup

The immediate target is the 4,231.791 area, which represents prior swing resistance and the upper edge of the triangle’s projected breakout zone. This level is where traders should watch for confirmation or rejection.

• Bullish confirmation: A clean break and hold above 4,231.791 with follow-through momentum would signal the start of wave (v) the next major impulsive leg higher, targeting the prior wave (iii) highs and upper channel.
• Bearish rejection: If price fails at 4,231.791 and reverses back into the triangle, the focus would shift lower toward prior support zones at 0.618 and 0.5 Fibonacci levels.

Elliott Wave Roadmap

• Triangle consolidation complete or nearly complete
• Watching 4,231.791 for breakout confirmation or rejection
• Above 4,231.791 = bullish wave (v) impulse likely underway
• Below prior low = corrective phase re-forms, downside targets activated

Monitor price action closely at this confluence zone; the next directional decision will become clear once price accepts or rejects 4,231.791.

Clear structure = clear decisions.

GBPUSD Elliott Wave Analysis continues to favour a bullish higher‑timeframe roadmap, with price currently working through what looks like a higher‑degree Wave 2 correction after the impulsive advance from the 1.21 area into the 1.37s. The decline from the Wave 1 high into 1.3145 forms the first leg of the correction (w), followed by an overlapping recovery into 1.3725 as x, and price now appears to be developing the final zigzag down in y toward the 1.29–1.28 support region highlighted on the chart.

Key Levels

The primary Wave‑2 downside zone spans from roughly 1.2930, which aligns with the 0.5 retracement of the prior advance, down to around 1.2740, where the 0.618 retracement comes in. The 1.29 handle sits in the middle of this cluster and also coincides with a 1.618 Fibonacci projection of the earlier swing, creating a strong confluence area for a corrective low. As long as GBPUSD holds above the wider 1.2660–1.27 region, the larger impulsive structure from 1.21 remains intact and this correction is still best viewed as Wave 2 rather than the start of a more bearish sequence.​​

Elliott Wave Roadmap

The preferred roadmap is for price to fade lower from the current descending channel resistance (blue trendline) and complete Wave 2 inside the 1.29–1.28 support box before a fresh Wave 3 advance has room to develop. While that zone has not yet been tested, pops within the channel are treated as corrective rallies, not yet the beginning of Wave 3. Once the boxed area is tagged and defended ideally with evidence of impulsive buying and improving momentum the focus shifts to confirming that Wave 3 is underway, with higher‑timeframe targets then projected using standard Fibonacci extensions of Wave 1.

BTCUSD Elliott Wave Analysis continues to point toward a corrective consolidation within a larger secular uptrend rather than a completed bull market.

Big Picture Monthly Structure

On the monthly chart, BTCUSD appears to have completed a clear five‑wave advance into a major high, labeled as cycle wave III, with strong middle‑wave extension and momentum peaks aligning with the prior blow‑off phases. Price is now holding above the primary trend channel and oscillating around the 0.236–0.382 retracement band, a typical depth for a fourth‑wave correction in a strong, ongoing secular trend.​​

Developing Cycle IV Triangle

Within this higher‑degree context, current price action is best described as a developing cycle wave IV triangle. The first leg lower from the cycle III peak into the recent low counts well as wave a, followed by an overlapping, choppy recovery that is advancing toward the 0.5–0.764 retracement region for wave b. This structure aligns with common triangle characteristics: contracting price swings, loss of directional momentum, and internal corrective subwaves rather than impulsive pushes.​

Key Levels and Invalidation

The key resistance zone for wave b sits in the 0.5–0.764 Fibonacci retracement band measured from the cycle III high to the wave a low, where reactions and slower upside progress would be expected if the triangle view is correct. On the downside, the major structural support is defined by the monthly 0.236–0.382 retracements and the lower boundary of the long‑term trend channel; holding above this cluster keeps the cycle IV triangle as the primary roadmap. A decisive sustained break below this band would be the clearest warning that the market is attempting a deeper correction than a typical fourth‑wave triangle.​​

Roadmap After Triangle Completion

If BTCUSD continues to trace out the remaining c–d–e swings inside the pattern, the expectation would be for volatility to compress further into mid‑range before cycle wave IV completes. Once a final e‑wave low forms without breaking the major support cluster, Elliott Wave guidelines anticipate a strong directional move in cycle wave V, with upside potential toward or beyond the upper parallel of the long‑term channel and Fibonacci extension targets measured from prior impulse legs.​

The market leaves clues. Elliott Wave reads them.

EURUSD Elliott Wave Analysis continues to favor a bullish higher timeframe bias while the Wave 4 contracting triangle structure holds above the base channel. Price action has likely completed wave d of the triangle, and the current focus is on wave e developing lower into the key Fibonacci support cluster at the 0.382, 0.5, and 0.618 retracement levels. This zone is where the correction is expected to complete before the next impulsive advance.

Current Structure

On the daily chart, EURUSD is tracing out a classic Wave 4 triangle, with each leg subdividing correctly and volatility compressing as the pattern matures. Wave d has tested upper resistance, and attention now shifts to wave e, which typically terminates near the triangle’s lower boundary and often aligns with Fibonacci supports taken from the prior Wave 3 advance. This confirms the integrity of the EURUSD Elliott Wave Analysis and keeps the broader uptrend intact.

4‑hour view: identifying waves ((c)) and ((d))

On the 4‑hour timeframe, the EURUSD Elliott Wave analysis marks wave ((c)) completing at 1.14697 after a sharp three‑wave decline that tagged both the lower triangle line and roughly the 0.764 retrace of the prior advance.​
From that low, EURUSD advanced in another overlapping three‑wave move and topped at 1.16823 just beneath the descending triangle resistance and close to the 0.5–0.618 retracement zone, a typical termination area for a triangle’s ((d)) leg.

Momentum adds weight to this reading: while price made a marginal new high into 1.16823, 4‑hour RSI failed to register a new high, leaving mild bearish divergence against resistance.​
This loss of upside momentum at a key confluence zone fits better with a maturing triangle wave ((d)) than with the start of a sustained impulsive breakout.

Key Levels & Invalidation

The key downside levels for wave e are the 0.382, 0.5, and 0.618 Fibonacci retracements, forming the primary support zone where the Wave 4 triangle is expected to complete. Invalidation of this scenario occurs only on a sustained break below the triangle floor and the base channel, which would suggest that Wave 4 is morphing into a deeper correction rather than a contained triangle. As long as price respects these structural boundaries, the bullish roadmap remains the preferred view.

Elliott Wave Roadmap

• Wave 4 triangle structure is unfolding as expected
• Wave e is projected into the 0.382–0.618 Fibonacci support cluster
• Count stays valid while price trades above the base channel and triangle support
• A clean impulsive breakout from the triangle would signal Wave 5 in progress
• Wave 5 target is the classic triangle thrust objective around 1.20697

Clear structure = clear decisions.

Gold continues to trade near all‑time highs, but the larger Elliott Wave structure suggests the market may be building a major expanding flat before a deeper correction unfolds. The current advance fits best as a terminal move within a higher‑degree wave (3), with price stretching above the prior peak into the wave b high at 4,381.27 before sellers began to respond.

Higher time frame structure

On the daily chart, the impulsive rally from the base channel has already delivered a strong five‑wave advance, with wave (iii) extended and followed by a broad, overlapping correction. That correction is counted as an expanding flat: wave A down, wave B breaking to a new high at 4,381.27, and a still‑developing wave C decline projected to unfold next. Momentum has already started to diverge against price on this last leg, consistent with a maturing B‑wave blow‑off.

Key levels and Fibonacci projections

Fibonacci projections from the prior swing outline a downside roadmap once this flat completes. The 2.618 extension clusters near 3,250, aligning with prior structure and channel support. A broader demand zone then spans roughly 3,140 down toward 2,920, where a 0.382 retracement of the entire advance meets the rising base channel. A more extreme capitulation scenario would open the door toward the 4.618 extension in the 2,490 region.

Gold Elliott Wave Forecast – Updated Structure

Gold has now confirmed a clean breakout from the contracting triangle, completing the B wave of the ongoing corrective structure. This development reinforces the broader Gold Elliott Wave Analysis outlook, suggesting that price is preparing for a C-wave advance aimed toward the upper Fibonacci resistance zone.

The recent consolidation printed a well-defined triangle, a formation commonly seen in the position of a B wave. The breakout aligns with this behaviour and supports the continuation of the correction.

Technical Breakdown

• Triangle confirmed as Wave B: Recent consolidation pattern resolved cleanly as a B-wave triangle—a classic corrective feature.
• Breakout supports bullish bias: Price action confirms alignment with the larger Elliott Wave scenario.
• Subwave subdivisions: Internal structure remains in harmony with the working wave count.
• Corrective channel intact: Gold continues to respect boundaries of the projected corrective channel.
• Wave (2) development ongoing: Structural evidence supports that Wave (2) is still incomplete.

C-Wave Upside Targets

The expected next phase is a C-wave rally, aiming toward a high-probability Fibonacci confluence zone before the corrective pattern resolves:

This zone offers the most likely completion area for Wave (2) before resumption of the dominant trend.

Outlook & Expectations

• Momentum watch: A sustained breakout suggests the C wave may gather strength toward the Fibonacci target zone.
• Validation level: The bullish scenario holds as long as price remains above the B-wave triangle low.
• Bigger picture: When Wave (2) completes, expect the higher timeframe downtrend to resume according to the master wave count.

Alternate Count

THE FOUNDATION OF ACCURATE CHART ANALYSIS

INTRODUCTION

Most traders label waves incorrectly. They’ll identify a 5-wave structure on their daily chart and call it “Wave 3.” Then they move to the hourly chart and apply the same labels, creating confusion and lost trades.

The truth? Elliott Waves don’t exist in isolation. They nest within each other across multiple timeframes. Understanding Elliott Wave Degrees is what separates professionals from amateurs who guess their way through charts.

This isn’t a advanced concept. It’s foundational. And once you master it, every single Elliott Wave pattern becomes easier to identify.

WHAT ARE WAVE DEGREES?

Definition: Wave degrees are the hierarchical levels at which Elliott Wave structures occur. Every wave degree follows the same 5-3 structure—just at different timeframes.

Think of it like Russian nesting dolls. Your daily chart’s Wave 3 contains multiple hourly waves. Each hourly wave contains multiple minute waves. And each minute wave contains multiple minuette waves.

The pattern repeats infinitely.

This is the fractal nature of Elliott Waves, and it’s why you see the same structures repeating on every timeframe.

THE 9 WAVE DEGREES (LARGEST TO SMALLEST)

Key Point: Each degree uses the SAME labelling (1-2-3-4-5 for motive, A-B-C for corrective). The only difference is the timeframe.

WHY THIS MATTERS FOR TRADING

Multi-Timeframe Confirmation:

• Your daily chart shows a 5-wave Minor impulse
• Your hourly chart shows that same 5-wave pattern breaking into 5 Minute waves each
• Your 15-minute chart shows those patterns breaking into 5 Minuette waves each

When all three timeframes align in wave degree, your setup probability increases dramatically.

Example:
If you’re trading a daily Minor Wave 3:

• Entry: When Minute Wave 1 completes on the hourly chart
• Pyramid: As Minute Waves escalate during Minor Wave 3
• Exit: When Minute Wave 5 completes (signaling Minor Wave 3 completion is near)

This is how professionals trade with precision. They’re not guessing—they’re reading nested structures.

CORRECT LABELLING RULES

Rule 1: Motive Waves = Always 1-2-3-4-5

Never label them as repeating: 1-2-1-2-1. The numbers represent progression through the structure, not cyclical repetition.

✓ Correct: Wave 1 → Wave 2 → Wave 3 → Wave 4 → Wave 5
✗ Incorrect: Wave 1 → Wave 2 → Wave 1 → Wave 2 → Wave 1

Rule 2: Corrective Waves = Always A-B-C

These must follow the corrective pattern. If it doesn’t fit, it hasn’t completed yet.

✓ Correct: Wave A → Wave B → Wave C (zigzag, flat, or triangle)
✗ Incorrect: Wave A → Wave B (waiting for Wave C before labelling complete)

1. Why Rule 2 Emphasizes A-B-C:
   Rule 2 highlights that the fundamental building block of corrective structures is the A-B-C pattern. Even complex corrections are made up of multiple A-B-C sections. Therefore, when labelling charts, one must ensure each section is a complete A-B-C before moving on to the next.
2. Incomplete Labels:
   Labeling a correction as just Waves A and B is premature until Wave C fully develops to complete that segment. This caution helps prevent misidentifying ongoing corrective movements that remain unfinished.

This rule does not deny the existence of complex corrections but enforces clarity and completeness when identifying parts of them.

Rule 3: Degree Consistency Within Timeframe

Choose ONE timeframe and stick with one degree level for that chart.

✓ Correct:

• Daily chart = Minor/Intermediate degree
• Hourly chart = Minute degree
• 15-min chart = Minuette degree

✗ Incorrect:

• Mixing degrees (calling some Minute, others Minor on the same daily chart)
• Jumping degrees inconsistently

Why Mixing or Jumping Degrees Is Wrong

• Mixing degrees (for example, labeling some waves as “Minute” and others as “Minor” on the same timeframe) leads to confusion and inconsistencies. Each degree (like Primary, Intermediate, Minor, Minute, etc.) should be used in a strict, logical sequence. On any given chart, if you label one wave “Minor,” all other waves of that rank must also use “Minor”—don’t jump around or swap terms between swings.
• Jumping degrees inconsistently means skipping logical wave degrees or flipping between ranks. For example, labeling a move as “Minute” and then its next subdivision as “Primary” is inconsistent (Minute is a smaller scale than Primary). You must always step up or down the degree sequence properly: Primary → Intermediate → Minor → Minute → Minuette, etc.

Rule 4: Larger Degree = Larger Structure

A Cycle degree wave is MUCH larger than a Minor degree wave. You can’t label a 2-day move as “Cycle” degree when your context is multi-year trends.

COMMON LABELLING MISTAKES (AND HOW TO FIX THEM)

Mistake #1: Forcing Structure Before Completion
❌ You see 3 waves and immediately call them A-B-C before Wave C finishes
✅ Wait for completion signals (Wave C closes below Wave A, or completes the pattern structure)

Mistake #2: Mislabeling Wave 4/Wave 2
❌ You see a pullback and call it Wave 4, even though it violates Wave 4 rules
✅ Verify Wave 4 does NOT overlap into Wave 1 price territory before labeling

Mistake #3: Inconsistent Degrees Across Charts
❌ You call daily waves “Minor” but hourly waves “Intermediate”
✅ Maintain consistent hierarchy (if daily is Minor, hourly is Minute)

Mistake #4: Confusing Retracements with Completions
❌ A 38% retracement looks “complete” but it’s just a shallow correction
✅ Wait for full structure completion, not just retracement targets

MULTI-TIMEFRAME LABELLING WORKFLOW

Step 1: Choose Your Primary Timeframe
(e.g., Daily chart)

Step 2: Identify Degree
(Minor = daily, Minute = hourly, Minuette = 15-min)

Step 3: Label Current Structure
(1-2-3-4-5 or A-B-C based on direction)

Step 4: Drop Down to Next Smaller Timeframe
(Hourly chart to label Minute degree)

Step 5: Use Smaller Degree for Entry/Exit Precision
(Trade Minute waves WITHIN Minor wave movements)

Step 6: Return to Primary Timeframe for Confirmation
(Verify larger degree structure supports smaller degree moves)

KEY TAKEAWAYS

✓ Wave degrees explain the fractal structure of all markets
✓ 9 degrees from Grand Supercycle down to Sub-Minuette
✓ Same labelling (1-2-3-4-5 / A-B-C) applies to ALL degrees
✓ Multi-timeframe alignment = higher probability setups
✓ Consistent degree naming prevents confusion
✓ Smaller degrees provide entry/exit precision
✓ Larger degrees provide trend confirmation

This Gold Elliott Wave Analysis reviews the current 15-minute triangle structure, offering key insights on market direction for Nov 17, 2025.

Gold Elliott Wave Analysis – Chart Overview

Gold Elliott Wave Analysis on the XAUUSD 15-minute chart highlights a corrective structure after a sharp wave 3 decline. Current price action is trading inside a contracting triangle (ABCDE), suggesting an imminent breakout as wave 4 winds down. Key support held at the 1.618 extension around 4055.89, and upper triangle resistance and Fibonacci levels (0.236 and 0.382 retracements) are capping near 4075–4100.

• Current Structure: Triangle formation for wave 4 after an impulsive decline.
• Levels to Watch:
  • Resistance: 4075–4101 zone (0.236/0.382 retracements).
  • Support: 4055 (1.618 ext.) and triangle lower boundary.
• Outlook:
  • A clean triangle break could signal wave 5’s directional move.
  • Above 4100 opens the door for a higher retrace (potentially to 4161–4180), while a break below 4055 would warn of trend continuation lower.
• Bias: Short-term neutral within triangle, turning bullish or bearish on the breakout.